WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF 2009/2010 GOVERNMENT BUDGET TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION?

The budget for Phase 4 Government, for the year 2009/2010, has been announced by the Minister responsible for Finance, Planning and Economic Development in the wake of a stimul ...Click here to read more

WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF 2009/2010 GOVERNMENT BUDGET TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION?

The budget for Phase 4 Government, for the year 2009/2010, has been announced by the Minister responsible for Finance, Planning and Economic Development in the wake of a stimulus package, earlier put in place by His excellence Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete, the president of the United Republic of Tanzania. A package of measures including, financial subsidies aimed at maintaining the tempo of growth for externally/internationally exposed sectors that have been affected by global economic turbulence were introduced and incorporated in the 2009/2010 budget,

In this budget, like in the previous ones, government announced economic policies and legal regulatory measures to stimulate economic development for poverty reduction. Fiscal policies to curb tax evasion and through which government will collect more tax revenues for strengthening social and economic infrastructure were announced. 

Our experience with privatization emphasized by phase 3 government through attraction of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and introducing local measures like MKUKUTA, MKURABITA, EPZ and several Structural Adjustment Programmes, the economy has experienced over 7.0% annual growth rate in GDP for the last five years. Sectors such as mining, construction, manufacturing, trade, hotel and restaurants that grew by more than 10% were responsible for much of this growth. Agriculture, the dominant sector with 48% share of GDP and which accommodates more than 75% of the total population, stagnated at 4% annual growth rate. Consequently there was no significant impact in poverty reduction.

Among policies and measures to stimulate poverty reduction the current budget has announced include: First, past policies aimed at strengthening performance in high gear growing sectors have been encouraged to continue.

Second, new policies aimed at sectors of the majority e.g. KILIMO KWANZA (Agriculture is top priority) have been promulgated. The latter aims at improving agricultural infrastructure in terms of irrigation, transportation, marketing, processing, storage, extension services financing etc. This is because agriculture is the dominant sector, and it is believed that its growth would quickly translate positively into poverty reduction.
 
Third, the budget has also announced measures to improve performance in other sectors that can stimulate directly or indirectly growth of the agricultural sector especially financial sector to the extent of thinking of establishing of Agricultural Sector Bank; what with after the 2009/2010 budget has been approved.

Having the Government presented its budget, it is important the public analyses it and gives its views on how the budget can be improved in order to achieve the intended objectives. So, this forum invites everybody to join the discussion on the following current budget related issues.

• Which of the policies/economic measures announced by the government are likely to stimulate growth and economic development (in which sectors) that will lead into poverty reduction?
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Is the current budget like the other past budgets in which policies were not able to stimulate commensurate performance? How different is the current budget from the past ones?
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Do you think the incentives provided in the budget, will make private investors direct their investments to sectors that touch the economic wellbeing of the hitherto neglected majority of the people?
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Is the current budget reflects the commitment of the government to “Kilimo Kwanza” policy?
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• What need to be done through budgetary policies, fiscal and otherwise for sustained and improved economic growth of the country?
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• What are your general opinions regarding the 2009/10 budget in relation to poverty alleviation and well being of the people? 

Allow me to express, on behalf of ESRF Management Team, our deep appreciation for your lively and rich debate on the topic. I must say we are so thrilled by your contributions. So far we feel that all is going on so smoothly and is a well rounded debate--including those who write only one sharp question in response to a full page of commentary! I have a feeling though that the issue of "how can we get the money" needed to finance all the desired levels of investments to make our economy tick through a well funded budget? I think we need to expand more on the intellectual analysis of "Which sector should be the priority growth sector and what should be the growth drivers for that sector? and How are we going to finance those growth drivers?"

My other suggestion is "Kama unaona unaweza kuchangia mjadala kwa kutumia lugha ya Kiswahili basi ujisikie uhuru wa kufanya hivyo. Nasema hivyo kwa vile kuna watu wachache nimeona kama wana mawazo mazuri ya kuchangia lakini wameyabania sana--labda kwa kujisikia inachukua muda mrefu kuandika na kuanza kusahihisha kiingereza kabla ya kutuma". (i am inviting Kiswahili contributors to feel free to do so).

As I end this for today, can you allow me to give a special thanks to Larry Gwandu who was the first person to respond to this debate with a very long but highly loaded commentary! And since then we have seen some that have broken his record--so thanks to all once again.. I was also happy that Larry admitted that (despite his many years of planning for rural development (my own qualifications snce I know him)), the commentary by Julie Adkins (see below) on "Markets First" reminded him of a perspective he had taken for granted-- perhaps with a pinch of salt for I know that the last irrigation project he coordinated in Dodoma, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Singida, Mara, Babati, Mbulu, etc, had a strong component on markets access through feeder roads from farms to market places!

But as Julie said: human beings, and peasants are human beings, are rational creatures who make rational decisions based on cost-benefit analysis based on, mostly their tacit knowledge of the socio-economic undertakings they are compelled to take at any one time(peasants make their own implicit and explicit computations for every decision they make). It is for this reason that even the KILIMO Kwanza blueprint has placed a high premium on ensuring a well functioning and rewarding domestic, regional and international market to create the needed incentive for the agric sector. Of course, the test is how to turn this into reality!

Larry's very interesting comparison of the costs and benefits of two simple mechanisation processes, made think that perhaps his arguments could have been even more illuminating he tried to include the dimensions of

(a) cost of taking care of bulls during off-peak season? I have feeling that the maintenance cost of cattle far outstrips that of a power tiller

(b) what about the environmental degradation brought about by overgrazing? and of course cattle grazing on the same crops; but on the other hand if well managed, cattle can be a source of nutrient recycling--manure- and source of energy--cooking/lighting gas if the cost of setting up digestors and piping is reduced
 
(c) but also the fact that even if used for transportation a power-tiller is more efficient--speed and convenience-- I saw a trailer-mounted power-till near Ruaha Mbuyuni in in Usangu, Mbeya making several trips for one trip of oxen-cart in an hours time.

His argument of technology transfer and employment relocation if we promote farm machinery mechanisation is also valid--only if we forget that our VETAs can actually easily copy the power-tiller technology than Massey Ferguson type of technology. I saw some locally made prototypes during the just ended 33rd Dar International Trade Fair (by JWTZ and VETA). So the challenge is how to commercialise those prototypes.

My special request: this angle of my argument is likely to take us off-track in having the bigger picture of the debate. So I would request we desist from taking it further- if you allow!

Dear Lunogelo and the rest,

Thank you for your comment, I appreciate it. We should not expect the government alone to build this nation, but rather the people’ combined effort. But the government contribution in creating an enabling environment is important.

Zamani nasikia Marehemu Mzee Kenyatta wa Kenya, aliwahi kusema kuwa Yeye amemshika ng’ombe pembe, hivyo anayeweza kukamua na amkamue. Mimi nakubaliana na usemi huo, kwani tuna nchi mmoja iliyo na amani, namshukuru Mungu na Viongozi wa serikali kwa hilo. Sisi wengine tuhangaike sasa kuwezesha kuleta mapinduzi ya Kilimo. Kama Mwalimu alivyosema “IT CAN BE DONE PLAY YOUR PART!!”

Baada ya hili tatizo la uchumi wa dunia kudorora, mimi naona ni wakati wetu sisi wa Ulimwengu wa tatu kupeta na hasa Tanzania, kwa maana sekta pekee ambayo haijatikisika ni ya kilimo cha chakula, na hiyo inawezekana zaidi katika nchi zinazoendelea kama ya kwetu. Mazao ya chakula ni biashara nzuri sana sasa hivi, kwa maana mahitaji mengine tunaweza kuahirisha, lakini kula hatuwezi kuahirisha. Hivyo serekali isaidie kutumia fursa hii, kwenye uzalishaji wa chakula, isibane soko, bali iwasaidie kuuza chakula ndani na nje, ipeleke mbolea kule inakotakiwa na kwa wakati unaotakiwa, isaidie mikopo kwa wanaohitaji na elimu ya ugani. Ieneze kilimo cha maksai zaidi kule kuliko na mifugo, kuliko power tillers, labda kwa wale matajiri.

Swala la “power tillers” tuwe makini, kwa vyovyote vile ni ghali, ukilinganisha na fursa ya wanyama kazi, lakini kwa wanaoweza tusiwabane, lakini wajue ukweli huo. Swala la wanyama kazi kuharibu mazingira, utakuta kule kwenye mifugo mingi hakuna utaalamu wa wanyama kazi kwani wao ni wachungaji wanaohamahama, bali kilimo cha wanyama kazi kwa wingi iko kule kwenye maeneo yale ambako kilimo kimepamba moto, Singida, Tabora, Mwanza, Mara, Arusha, n.k. Swala la mazingira ni pana sana, ni tatatizo la joto kupanda duniani kutokana na viwanda vya wenzetu walioendelea zaidi, kuliko mifugo! Je, theluji ya Kilimanjaro kupungua inatokana na mazingira kuharibiwa na mifugo? Kama power tillers zitatengenezwa nchini italeta unafuu, na vipuli vyake vitapatikana kiurahisi, lakini lini? Katika bajeti hii? kwa vyovyote vile itachukua muda! Tunazungumza kuhusu nyoka aliyeingia ndani ya chumba chetu (uchumi umetikisika), lazima tumtoe nyoka huyo kwa haraka. Uchumi wa dunia umeyumba, hakuna tena wajomba, maana nao wanamatatizo hayo hayo, hivyo tutumie kile tulicho nacho na kwa haraka.

Kutokana na takwimu, tutarajie mvua kuanza kupungua kati ya sasa na 2015, kama nilivyoeleza hapo mwanzo (mchango wangu wa kwanza), je, tunajitayarisha vipi??? Maji yatapungua kwenye mito, kwenye mabwawa, kumbuka 1963/4, 1973/4, 1983/4, 1993/4, 2003/4, je, kwanini tusiitarajie mwaka 2013/4? Je, uchumi wa dunia utakuwa umesharudia hali yake ya kawaida ili tupate msaada wao? (kumbuka hao wajomba wa nje walitusaidia kwa chakula katika vipindi hivyo vigumu). Hivyo tatizo hili serekali ilitafakari sana kwa makini na kujitayarisha, kuanzia sasa tusishangae kuwa tutaingia kwenye tatizo la umeme katika miaka michache kuanzia sasa!!  Bajeti hii ilitakiwa kuyaangalia na kuyatafakari haya yote, na kuanza kuweka hatua za kinga.

Nawasilisha!

Nd. Peter Nyanje,

Thanks for your reply, but what concerns all of us is what is a way forward now, how can we get these planners re-orient their priorities i.e. instead of hunting for catchy slogans (to please the politicians), they should come with tangible plans which will be a road map to lead the nation to green revolution (and please all of us). I am suggesting they should take the human factor as a matter of priority (i.e. look though the farmers eyes), find out the constraints which hinders the achievement of green revolution.

It is only the people of Tanzania who will take us there, not political slogans. Let us get the incentive to production to the people, as a farmer and with strong background on farming, the major incentive which is a major driving force to production is MARKETING!! As Julie Adkins have said that “SIGNIFICANT ICREASE IN PRICE = SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRODUCTION” and to prove this, in 1999/2000 the price of cashew increased from less than Tsh. 200 per Kg. to between 600 and 900, at (least a trible increase), cashew become the top agricultural earner for Tanzania. The remaining constraints most of them can be addressed by farmers.

So NO INCREASE IN PRICE (MIPAKA IMEFUNGWA HAKUNA KUUZA MAHINDI NJE maana tuna uhaba wa chakula)= NO INCREASE IN PRODUCTION = GOVERNMENT IS FORCED TO IMPORTING FOOD FOR ABROAD IN FUTURE = TANZANIA BECOMES A DUMPING GROUND = NO GREEN REVOLUTION.

 Tubadilike!! La sivyo tutakuwa shamba la wajanja wa nje.

Bwana Gwandu, I believe that the government planners were only concerned to come up with a catchy slogan, basi. believe me, we are not going to achieve green revolution oput of this kilimo kwanza thing. We dont need any mroe slogans to achieve green revolutions. I dont think there is anything new in Kilimo kwanza which we have not heard before.

What is required now is to act. Even if we pull out makabrasha about siasa ni kilimo we will have almost similar literature that has been used to coin kilimo kwanza thing. The problem is that we are better at coining slogans and poor at implementing the plans. Just as kilimo ni siasa, kilimo kwanza makabrasha will also end up in cabinets and that will be the end of it waiting for some other 'clever' politicians re recycle them after say, 20 years. How short minded we are

Hello TAKNET people!
Am Edward! From Kampala International University (KIU) Uganda. Am doing Bachelor of D'vnt Study.
For my side I have the following opinion!

 I think this policy it going to fail, because I see is like propaganda which always I hearing from our government and political leaders!

Because our government day-to-day implements new policy without strong M&E as results leave police/s hang!

 Most of our policy in Tanzania there in BLUE PRINTS (on paper). What I mean here our police there not active when introduced. There no strong follow up in our police/s, that why am saying this policy of KILIMO KWANZA it’s going to fail.

The idea of improving our agriculture is good, because it will improve the quality of life to their citizens especial in rural areas. But government must understanding that, to improve the agriculture the government must come up with new modern technologies tools, combine with quality education or strong seminar to rural peoples in all angles of rural areas in Tanzania! But when the Budget of Ministry of Agriculture look is not enough to support this policy!

Thanx!

HI JIM!!

THANK YOU FOR U R RESPECT FROM MY COMMENTS!!

 ONE TO DO THIS EVALUATION AND TAKE DECISION ON THE NEXT INTRODUCED ISSUE IS ALL OF US BUT REAL MAIN IMPORTANT ISSU HERE IS POLITICAL WILLINGNESS AND READY FOR CHALLENGES TO OUR POLITICIANS AND DECISION MAKERS!!

 THE OTHER PROBLEM I REALISE WE IS A CONFUSION WE HAVE NOT REAL DECIDED TO SEPARATE BETWEEN POLITICS AND PROFFESIONALISM THOUGH SOME BELIEVE THAT POLITICS IS PROFFION!!

 OUR POLITICAL LEADERS SHOULD BE READY TO ACCEPT THE VIEWS FROM THE PLANNERS AND THEM MAKE DECISION BASING OF PLANNING PROFFESIONALISM AND NOT BASING ON THEIR POLITICAL INTERESTS.

 THANKYOU!!!!!!!

hi there it is my pleasure toread from u but let me comment something from what i know.

from our political point of view is there any politcal idea that have been introduced in tz worked realy?

this "Kilimo Kwanza" from my views i think is just a political trap for the next general ection year remember we had "Maisha Bora kwa kila Mtanzania"

has it worked my dear contributirs?

this is just like a project but from my little understanding an existing project should first be evaluated before a new one is introduced so with our knowledge of evluation of these comming political slogans how far has kilimo kwanza worked.

am sorry to say this is is politicians "usanii" to make us fool because what they say and plan is not what they implement.

agricultural implementation and advancement has got to with lot of sectors improvement and not just a one day workup and say "kilimo kwanza" this am aginst the gvt.

we can make the farmers produce much and mor but where to sell and process the products? not only a matter of where to sell but how to bring where to sell here am talking abt transport sector improvment and also the issue of market settlement.

In kilimo kwanza what is our main target food crops or cash crops?

agriculture is the main sector and will be more profitable in our country if we real plann strategically my dera friends in this case lets look it in deep of our knowledge u can not say kilimo kwanza but in budget piorities it is kilimo 4.

nasema huu ni usanii they need to fool farmers in the next election kwani even maisha bora kwa kila mtanzania it was the farmers who were conqured with the slogan including our parents so let us not allow it again.

thank you

cyril komba k.

I believe the thinking of agriculture as a priority growth sector is historical as the nation used to earn most of its income from that sector, in addition the majority of the population in the country depend on it if you want to call one and half acres per household agriculture. My simple thinking says, is it the best way to use most of our human capital tilling the land? Another thought is, are they the "farmers" for lack of a better word to call them knowledgeable on the burden the nation is putting on their sholders and are they prepared to take on the burden?

We have come a long way from Siasa ni Kilimo to Kilimo Kwanza and I believe they are a lot of lessons learnt they. I hope somewhere when coming up with Kilimo Kwanza these lessons were taken into consideration and if not its never too late we can take that as part of the Kilimo Kwanza efforts. I hope Kilimo Kwanza is not cast in stone!

On the agric banking, I have been working in the rural microfinance sector for a number of years now and this goes even in the urban sector that finance is not the only answer for one to be able to become a successfull business entity? I am not sure if the having the agricultural bank or whatever is going to bring about significant change without capacity building in other areas such as business skills. I know a lot of people who can write very good business proposals but cannot manage businesses of their own if they were to be given loans/finance.

Overall we have examples of succesfull farming in the country but the way I see it is that these successes are not being picked/copied up by others as fast as people would pick up businesses like petrol stations or selling mitumbas if you like and we all know how we Tanzanians are good at coping at one another!! Why is it that whoever makes some money will open a petrol station, a guest house/hotel, a wholesale/retail business or any other copied business but not agriculture? If people with the capital outlay find agriculture unpalatable why do we expect the "farmers" to do so? I believe as you pointed out if we have our drivers in that area right we will find people getting into the business even without the need for a whisper!

Just thinking aloud!

Bwana gwandu, it might seem differemnt if you look at the productivity angle.

The power tiller might seem a bit expensive to operate but its productivity might be high in a sense that using power tiller one would be able to cultivate larger area compared to the animals.

With increased productivty, we might compensate for the costs and, though more of the imputs of the power tillers will be comming from abroad, but we will also benefit our economy because the product is ours.
 
I think there is no need to be afraid with benefiting other economies bacause that was globalisation entails, and we have agreed to it

In this rejoinder, I limit myself to four issues only concerning the Budget and Kilimo:

 (i)                  First,  Kilimo Kwanza: I admit it   is a correct clarion call ,  given our recurring disgrace with almost annual food crisis threats in Tanzania . Yet Kilimo Kwanza, though well meant,  is only a slogan. It is not based on solid preparatory work to involve everybody in the battle. Foremost, should be the small farmers themselves! Are they aware that they are being called upon to  waken up for the battle,  as  they are  the  frontline soldiers in this battle?. No, they are not;  since the slogan has been coined up in Dar and in fact it is not backed up by a comprehensive document that shows how different parties and budget elements  are going to contribute to Kilimo Kwanza. What are its targets and  when are we expected to achieve them (i.e. M&E)?

(ii)                Kilimo Kwanza  can still be re-engineered. But we need to go back to the drawing board. The design of the  objectives, the budget implications, the identification of key players and the process of their  involvement in the implementation, etc, need to be properly identified. All this should form part of the Tanzania Growth Strategy now in the process of being formulated. Then Kilimo kwanza would represent the swivel around which  to drive the economy in the next Phase of MKUKUTA (2010-2014). That means the real Kilimo Kwanza can only be implemented starting with the budget of 2010/11, which allows the government time  to mobilize the various parties and especially the farmers to plan to implement an authentic Klimo Kwanza.

(iii)               My third point  is the procedure of debating the budget in Parliament.  I do agree with the current procedure  of approving the global budget before delving into sector budgets so as to get the whole budget balance right. What runs contrary to this process, though ,   is the habit of MPs coming up with additional (new) projects without showing the source of funding within the agreed budget envelope. It is only this month and for the first time, as far as I could remember,  the MP for Ilemera (Mwanza) Hon. Antony Diallo attempted to make a correct move by  introducing new roads (e.g. Dodoma-Iringa Road) and was bold a enough to show which projects already in the budget proposals  should be cancelled to give way to his priorities.  In the end, the parliament came up with a budget busting compromise of admitting his proposals and still retaining the old projects. Nonetheless  his attempted method  is to be lauded.

(iv)              My last point is the laxity with which we have reacted to the world financial crisis. I would have expected the government, starting with this budget, to make a   thoroughgoing catharsis   of the budget expenditure patterns, starting with cutting down  deeply on workshops and missions and going as far as effacing perennial budget millstones  such as the moving of the capital to Dodoma (since 1974). But the ensuing behavour has been as if nothing has happened  in the financial   world . Mungu atatusaidiaje!

Bwana Foya, that is where always go wrong. Viongozi wanakaa na kufikiria wka niaba ya wakulima wakatyi hawana experience ya what is happening to the farmers.

Decisions are made without the knowledge on how the farmer feels about what is gong on

Thank you Larry Gwandu for a breath of fresh air! Hakuna kazi bila jasho, but who would sweat for no profit! And farming is hard work indeed. It is tiring to hear the politicians talk again and again, year after year, about increasing small farmers’ access to loans and mechanizing agriculture.

If agriculture does not pay (kilimo hailipi) then loans cannot be repaid nor can the machinery operating and maintenance costs be covered. Take the farmers in Lindi and Mtwara Regions for example (the fathers and grandfathers of those Wamachinga who own the cashew trees): in 1999/2000 cashew exports were the top agricultural earner for Tanzania.

Why? Because the price of cashew rose significantly following economic liberalization from less than TSh 200 per kg to between TSh 600 and 900 per kg. Significant increase in price = significant increase in production. There are many more examples in Tanzania and elsewhere.

There are many factors which contribute to getting a good price for crops, including knowing and keeping up with the market demands. Traditional farming is a way of life closely tied to societal norms and values. Agricultural development in today’s world requires business skills and perspective.

But where are these skills are taught? Not at the VETA or Folk Development Colleges, and agricultural extension still tends to focus on the technical agricultural practices and rather than business practices. The expansion the media, including local radio stations and mobile telephone networks, now provide a good opportunities to keep farmers informed on market trends (price and product) and well as the vagaries of the weather.

One point on the land issue: increased access to agricultural land can only go hand in hand with access to infrastructure. There are large areas of uncultivated good agricultural land (e.g. in Lindi Region), but without the basic necessities of at least water supply and a road network (to get products to the market) no one will go there, even temporarily during the growing season.

Asante,

Je kuna mkulima yoyote katika majadiliano haya? Je nini nafasi ya wakulima katika kupanga mipango na sera za kilimo.
Mawazo mengi ni mazuri lakini nini nafasi ya mkulima katika kufanya maamuzi?

Hay, To day My interest lies in  main area of Agricultural budgets:

 What I want to say about this sector of agricultural, is that too much have been said for too long and very little have been on the ground! We should practice what we say intead of talking and talking-PUT things in paractice NOW (KILIMO NI UTI WA MGONGO WA TAIFA) since enzi za mwalimu we are singing that corrous!! (The government has not modernise the agricultural sector and it has just been saying alot and done very little-very low impact?)

1. It is high time our Government start working on the following areas if they want an in pact and good out come:-

2. Give or support  small farmers with LOANs eg hire small tractors or assist them with Wind Mills!!! inoder to turn them to big framers and support MARKETING their goods

3 Capacity building -give them knowladge and skills on modern agricultural and possible  irrigation farming facilities, so that they can run farming throughout the year -avoiding depending on unreable rains.

That means farmers can own Wind Mills so that they can generate their own electricity and not depend on TENESCO which is expensive and not always available---in the rural areas.

4. Give them knowladge and skills of caring of the cross breading of cattles/goats/sheep/ and chicken etc other animals. A study tour to other developed country would be an aideal (BUT THE FOCUS BE BASED ON LOCAL FARAMERS AND NOT MINISTRIAL OFFICIALS) THIS COULD BE DONE LIKE HAVING A TOT COURSE FOR EACH REGION AND AFTER THE VISIT THEY COULD COME A TRAIN OTHERS S FARMERS IN THEY AREA.

 5. The Gorvernment must try to look for means to assist the local farmers to sell their products! (Marketting is very poor) This is an important area:- Lets look at the oranges and pianneples, mangoes and tomatoes cultivated in our districts eg Ukerewe, Mwanza and Geita districts! Look at those bananas found in Kagera! -

In summary I am focusing on  three main issues!! If truely our government is serious about any change in agricultural:-

1.I mean impact small farmers with knowladge and skills on modern agricultural -through capacity building..to do away from the traditional thinking and practicing farming!

2. Skills and knowladge of preservation of goods and Marketing including timely-How, where and when to do things!

3.Small farmers to be given small Loans to facilitate them DO abc... 

4. Supervision and counsultation from wataalamu wa kilimo ( they are not to be found anywhere, when you need them).Where are they?

for me i conquer with collegeuas for what they are arguing regardess the AZIMIO LA ARUSHA and nothing had happened later so let us move accordingly but now is the time to move strategically with manefesto evaluation nothing can be supported
without realist appraisal hence we shuold tell our people to look on the reality of our lives and what have accheived in temr of poverty reduction and the support from or within the big fishes

My contribution

1. Give incentive to the private investors who invest in agriculture. For example, when such investors apply for loan to establish agricultural related facilities, such as factories and small industries, must be supported. The government may support them to repay the loan at 50% and the indigenous investor pays the remaining 50%.This also involves subsidies on agricultural inputs.

2. Another incentive is to give indigenous investors who add value to agricultural produce a tax holiday for a certain period such as three to five years.

3. To facilitate establishment of smallholder farmers associations such as those experienced in the tea industry (eg Rungwe Smallholder Tea Growers Association-RSTGA) for every agro-industry value chain so as to link with private sector. Here the cooperative societies must be left to compete with other private sector investors in the same industry in order to increase efficiency by abating monopoly of cooperative societies.

4. To support agro-industry based researches in the value chain development. This needs to borrow Triple-Helix model. Triple means Universities. Government and Private companies working together to come up with innovative ideas relating to agro-industry development. These need interdisciplinary researcher’s approaches in kind of hands-on (practical) Participatory Action Researches in the industry. . This means the private sector must be encouraged to involve knowlegeable researchers to solve their problems at hand eg developing a computer program that may increase Just In Time (JIT).

Those four suggestions may support AGRO-INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN development.  But still l we need rules and regulations in these agro-industry value chains that supports contractual relations. These are the rules of the game-property rights and contract law enforcement. We need to make the market responsive to the farm produce, otherwise smallholder farmers will be demoralise when they will produce much foods for the households and fail to sell the surplus in the market.

Aurelia Kamuzora

hello once again dear members.

what a topic...i am first and foremost pleased to learn that tanzanians are starting to open their eyes with regards to the promises that are always put forward right before the scramble for the big chair...many promises are usually made and a few are kept "kauli mbiu", here being "kilimo kwanza"; are just words for getting applause during campaigns and perhaps nothing more. so allow me to take you back to "maisha bora kwa kila mtanzania"..Please let me know if u see any of that in our rural areas and even in dar es salaam for that matter??? but this is all politics, i can not argue from that stand point..

so, my first concern would be, if the country has decided to embark on agriculture, are there any laid out plans? plans that should be able to point out the prospective buyers or the anticipated reliable market, strategies for enabling the farmers to keep the farms and their lives running, irrigation schemes, means of monitoring, creation of new or improving the existing infrastructure  etc..it is one thing to allocate a small amount of money for agriculture and yell “kilimo kwanza”, implementing is another...and mere words as said by foya, kamwaya and khamis wouldnt do....

on the question of the agricultural bank, it sounds like a solution but then again, monitoring should be efficient to ensure that the money really is channeled into the intended purpose (we all remember EPA)..

i think also that the government should spare funds in case of disasters such as draught, damage, or simply failure for the farmers to sell the produce.. this brings about motivation, a sense of responsibility any government should have for its farmers as is the case of subsidized fertilizers. (but is not the way out)

now i take you to the maputo declaration on agriculture which stipulated that a 10% budgetary cut for agricultural and rural development was agreed upon by the ministers for agriculture of AU member states (including our minister) and would help in the implementation of development policies for agriculture and the rural areas. now, has tanzania fulfilled this????? if not, how do we achieve what we say we will achieve?

if all the AU leaders agreed on the declaration, why should they not come together as one as advocated by Gaddafi and the late Nkhrumah? or if africa is too big a continent, how about breaking it down to central, eastern, western, southern etc..but then again,this is probably beyond taknet's grip and maybe even irrelevant but i think it is the only way africa can dictate,control and manipulate the market of its agricultural produce thereby ensuring sustainability..tanzania standing alone makes it seem next to impossible..

lastly, i think agriculture should be taken as other lines of work, we can start by improving the lives of the farmers, provide them with not only agricultural tools and accessories but also with basic human needs such as housing and its requirements in the rural areas...if they are able to live 'large' out of agriculture, who would wish to keep begging or migrate to dar es salaam when land and a hoe or rather a tractor; can provide everything for them?

akhsanteni.

The other period from 5 to 0 are priod whith long rains, maximum being around 7/8 example 1957/8 I remember we had floods in my village (I am from Babati District), again I witnessed it in 1967/8, by then I was in secondry school, some of us could not travel home for easter holidays as it was not accesable, roads were washed out. I hope we all remember what happened during Kagera war in 1978/9, we had alot of rains. Iin 1987/8 I remember our Presdent at that time Ali Han Mwinyi had to camp to in Chikuyu to ensure the Mwanza Dodoma road which was seriously damaged by heavy rains is repaired fast.

Again I hope we still remember the devestating floods of 1997/8 caused by rains of the so called EL-Nino phenominal, where the whole counrty was segemented, nearly all major and minor roads were damaged, briges washed away, of course this was exteeme. Again in 2006/7/8, we again had heavy rains some roads were damaged, irrigation infrastructures also damaged. Chalize - Korogwe road was damaged too, I remember they had to but a temporary bridge by the army to ensure Tanga, Kilimanjaro and Arusha is linked to Dar??

 The rains are linked to agricultural production. In Lake Zone particularly Shinyaga, during the period of heavy rains 5-0, we normlly have good paddy production, and poor cotton production. So the early warning system if it was working,  can be used to prepere the country and put mitegation steps in place in time, such as conserve water, plant the relevant crops and or seeds, build Strategic food reserve etc.

To me these problem of statitics to be used by eraly system institution should be addressed as a matter of priority. I urge ESRF to take the challenge, do the research, you have many Professors there, what are they professising, please consult Rainfall datas, Hydrological Datas??  Should we have another Josef of Egypt, after over 5,000 year, with all the knowledge arround??

As a son of a peasnt farmer, and as rural developer for more than 30 years in the field of agriculture and specialized in irrigation, so that production to increase we need 1) Good seed, 2) Fertilezer 3) good agronomical practice i.e proper land preparation, planting at right time, weeding in appropriate time, pest control, control post harvest losses.

Water availability is an issue too but if we know our envirnment, and good forecast of rain pattern as sted above, we have good chance of success. But all this needs an engine, incentive, driving force, which is good market. So if it is KILIMO KWANZA then liberalise the marketing, let the produce go werever it can fetch good price, let the government help the farmers attain this. If government wants to make sure it has enough food for its citezen, let them give better price than the price offered by the neighboung countries.

 So to me subsidize fertilizers, improved seeds, get good market for the farmers is priority one. With issue of Credit to farmers, my problem is who will get it? not the big ones? If so in this country, how many are they? I think the major produceses are smallholders who are not credit worthy! So I do not see credit as a major driving force so far, so inverst in the above 3 areas, ie. good market, incentive or subsidy in Seeds and fertilizers, get very effective early warning system in place. The price icentive for the cotton growers to me is apropriate, and a good steps to the right direction. I pray to see more of such intrvention by the government and you will see the true green revolution.

I have more, but I am worried it might be too long and boaring. so let this be it for today. I will apreciate your comment, and constructive critisism. 

Dear Dr. Lunogelo, and all

 First, I thankyou for your E-mail. Secondaly, I would like to react to your E-mail and the tabled debatable issues. As you know I am one of the stakeholder in Kilimo, so it is part of my life and especially, as I came from the rural area who depend on agriculture, and for several decades I have been working on Agricultural Sector. The re-coined theme of "KILIMO KWANZA", is not a new thing. We had KILIMO CHA KUFA NA KUPONA, SIASA NI KILIMO, etc, to me they all sound the same.  

The question we should be asking ourselves is what was the perfomance. Did it work. Not so much, as ana evidence this is why we have another slogan "KILIMO KWANZA", REMBER we have always been saying "KILIMO NI UTI WA MGONGO" now do we admit that that backbone is broken, or sick, as Agriculture is left to the aged generation, the young ones have migrated to the cities to do petty trading - WAMACHINGA! why is this so? Obviously it is due to lack of incentive in agricultural sector. Young generation say "KILIMO HAILIPI", I think they are right, and that is why even Comercial Banks don't give credit.

To my opinion,  the core proplem is "we are missing the incentive" which is the DRIVING FORCE so that "KILIMO KILIPE". To me the first obvious driving force is the PRICE INCENTIVE. As long as the government is controlling the price at the backyard, (i.e. closing the borders - so that the produce can not go out to sastisfy the local demand, in other wards, they are denied the good price for their produce), while talking the market economy, I think this is the first problem to be solved. LET THE GOVERNENT HELP THE FARMERS GET GOOD PRICE FOR THEIR PRODUCE , or is the government assuming that the farmers ara stupid? Be warned that farmers are very cleaver people, they are good economist the world has known. If farming is not paying they will cut production, this is very natural, even animal knowa, if you do not feed your cow well it will cutoff milk production.

Second problem in this sector is that the our early warning system, is dead, hence we have allowed Weather to affect in a negative way our agricultural production. To my opinion the weather pattern has fairly been constant for exampe, years between 0 to 5 are espected to be years of low rain with year 3 or 4 being the lowest example, 1903/1904 must have been year with minimum rainfal, which resulted to MAJIMAJI rebellion, historians can research this. I was born in 1950, and in 1954 I remotely remember (as I was very young by then) my parents had to migrate, due to serious drought at that time. In 1961-1964 there was another serious drought,

I remember this cleary as we had to eat the so called "Yellow Corn from USA" I hope some senior citizens of this country can clearly remeber this. The period of 1970-75 most of us remeber I hope, as in 1974 BULGA for USA saved our lives especially in the rural areas. Have we forgotten of 1984? the long ques, which resulted to the accident of our beloved PM Sokoine, for he had to travell by road to see where the rain has rained between Dodoma and Dar in April?  Again in 1994, we had the same problem, I remember by then the PM Malecela had to anounce that the year with 4 have ffrquent rain problem? It happened in 2004, and the Minister of Agriculture Hon. Keenja was  had hard time in the Parliament to explain why the government has food shortage also most of the water reservoirs dried which resulet to Richmond Scandal? So why should this phenominal not expected between 2010-2005, especially 2013-14?? How is the government prepairing for the eminent crisis to be caused by rain shortage in that period??

Dear Dr. Lunogelo, thanks for the contribution,

My observation is , more oftenly politician think and utter good things when approaching elections, but the problem has been  implementation, monitoring and evaluation of such macro policies uttered. there lot of promises already give since independence but always we have found ourselves swaying following the wind blows; what is required is for the Tanzanian to stand firm and put leaders to power who would walk their talk.
 
Good words without actions are no help to this nation. the better impact lies on citizen to be watchful and questioning integrity of leaders. kilimo kwanza is possible, this is not the first time I hear the government saying this, it once proposed Morogoro to be a stand alone stock for food products but implementation did not catch expected speed as i thought could be.

All in all we have potential valleys and basins, which if coult be tapped , no wonder tanzania would be like China or India.

 significant problems with Tanzanians 

I do agree completely with Mr.Foya that land and agriculture do go hand in hand. If the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture is the fourth in rank it does not make sense at all by simply saying that the government is putting wait on agriculture.

When the country Tanzania got independence in 1961 70% of its economy depended on agriculture we had Mwadui Mine and some gold mines(Lupa Gold Mine) and the Sekenke Gold Mine was closed since Colonel Bakaeri left the country.
 
Since then the government has not modernise the agricultural sector and it has just been saying allot and done nothing.

Now it’s time for the government to do the following.
1. Give small farmers enough arable land and turn them to big framers and support them by loans.
2.Train them in modern irrigation farming so that they can cultivate the whole year round.Let these farmers have Wind Mills so that they can generate their own electricity and not depend on TENESCO.
3. Train these farmers to have cattles,goats,sheeps and other animals. Send them to Denmark some of the Officers from The Ministry of Agriculture so that they will see how the Danish farmers manage to do all this!

Dr.khamis
Sweden

Dear Contributors to this Forum,
(1) In the introduction to the issues that could be discussed our preparedness in addressing "Kilimo Kwanza" initiative was pointed as a debatable issue.
(2) Are the plans to start an Agric Bank or recapitalise the TIB (with a special window on agric long term credit) and reducing duties for agricultural implements (mechanisation drive) enough to ensure that the sector takes it presumably righful role as a growth sector?
(3) Is giving subisidized fertlisers the right approach? Shouldnt that money be used to open up infrastructure to link the remotes to markets and allow input suppliers to reach those remote areas?
(4) Has the 2009/10 laid enough ground to address all the important growth drivers for the sector? And by the way, what are these drivers for the sector and can we prioritise them?
(5) A related debatable issue is whether we are quite right in taking agriculture as a priority growth sector? is there any other sector which, if its drivers are propoerly funded managed and funded will automatically unlock the full potential of the agric sector?

(6) Another debatable issue is the much acclaimed assertion that tanzania has been fast to devise a special rescue package following the effects of the global financial crisis. Is the package "well designed", is it enough? or have we put our priorities wrong? I personally got a phone call from one FM radio in Kigali wanting to know why we have to decided to use our hard-earned tax payers money to "finance multinational companies who have been exploiting our country all along"-- meaning that if they get a loss a now--it should be taken as part of their business risks!  I had my own answer. But do you thing that view is justified?

(7) My PLEA TO ALL: Please let us participate in this debate. You can pick on any aspect of the budget since now most of the ministries have presented their budgets. For example, Prof.Msolla was scrunitised by MPs on the decision to allow M-Banking. Fears: we cannot trace who is bring or sending our money and for what purpose?

Looking forward to your comments.
Dr. H.Bohela Lunogelo
Co-Moderator

Some analysis shows that, from 2009/2010 budget, Kilimo is the fourth in list of government expenditure. How can they tell us KILIMO KWANZA? If Kilimo is first, it is known that, without land, there is no kilimo, how much does Land Ministry get from the budget allocation to support 'KILIMO KWANZA'? The ruling class is full aware that majority of Tanzanian voters are in rural areas and their main economic activity is agriculture, so the good way of winning their votes is to channel money to agriculture.

This is more of campaign for 2010 rather than GREEN REVOLUTION.

The government needs to adequately address the issue of land. Most of the farmers are still cultivating small plots which are just enough for subsistence consumption and small surplus. Even if the government claims to support input like Power Tillers and Tractors, they will not benefit peasants but few progressive farmers.

In areas with cash crops forces of demand and supply-free market should be respected.  For example in Karagwe, local authorities have banned exportation of coffee to Uganda where farmers receive higher price than one paid by cooperative society and local companies (middle men)

Looking forward to hear more from other contributors.

Adam J. Foya

Dear TAKNET members,
I hope everything has been going well with you. For those who have visited our website a few days ago you have noticed that we have new topics for discussion.

Therefore, today I would like to welcome you all to forward your views on one of the topics titled “2009/10 Government Budget: What impact should be expected?” Our main objective is to get your views on how you think 2009/10 Government budget has succeeded or failed to address the long term policy objective of reducing poverty and making KILIMO KWANZA i.e. agriculture is the first priority.

If you think that the current budget cannot achieve these two objectives, then we will be grateful to have your suggestions on how the revenues could have been allocated to achieve the same. 

Your ideas will help us come-up with policy suggestions to the Government on how to improve the allocation of resources in future.

Thank You

Donatilla Kaino
Moderator